Gold Basis Monitor
Real-time basis and co-basis between LBMA spot and COMEX front-month gold futures. Updated every 15 minutes during U.S. market hours.
Current Basis
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What is the Gold Basis?
The gold basis is the difference between the futures price and the spot price of gold. A positive basis (contango) is the normal condition. A negative basis (backwardation) signals that holders prefer physical metal over paper promises — a stress indicator for the monetary system.
Full explanation in the Atlas →Methodology
Basis = front-month COMEX gold futures price − LBMA spot price. Co-basis = LBMA spot price − front-month COMEX gold futures price. The monitor samples both quotes on a 15-minute cadence during U.S. market hours and computes the spread continuously, in addition to plotting the full forward curve across delivery months.
A persistent negative basis (backwardation) means holders refuse to part with physical metal at any futures premium — the signal Antal Fekete identified as the vital sign of the monetary system. The forward-curve display distinguishes front-month stress from structural curve shape.
Data Sources
- Spot price
- LBMA AM/PM fix and intraday tape
- Futures price
- CME front-month gold futures (GC) and full forward curve
- Update cadence
- Every 15 minutes during U.S. market hours
- Historical retention
- Daily readings retained continuously since instrument launch
How to Interpret
A positive basis (contango) is the normal monetary condition — holders are compensated for lending gold against futures. A narrowing basis as delivery approaches is the early stress signal. A negative basis (backwardation) signals paper-physical decoupling: the futures market can no longer source physical metal at the prevailing forward premium.
Permanent backwardation — the regime Fekete predicted in his later essays — is the terminal condition in which the futures curve never re-inverts. The monitor is designed to log the episodes that pass through transient backwardation toward that endpoint.
How to Cite
Researchers, journalists, and analysts citing this instrument are welcome to use the formats below. Replace [date of retrieval] with the date you retrieved the reading.
Prose
New Austrian Economics, Gold Basis Monitor, retrieved [date of retrieval], https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/gold-basis
Academic (APA)
New Austrian Economics. (2026). Gold Basis Monitor [Data analysis tool]. Retrieved [date of retrieval] from https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/gold-basis
One-liner
per the Gold Basis Monitor at newaustrianeconomics.com