Gold Basis Monitor
Calendar-spread carry, annualized basis, and live co-basis for gold — the paper-physical tension between COMEX futures and spot. Futures refresh every 15 minutes during U.S. market hours.
Current Basis
Loading current basis…
What is the Gold Basis?
The gold basis is the difference between the futures price and the spot price of gold. A positive basis (contango) is the normal condition. A negative basis (backwardation) signals that holders prefer physical metal over paper promises — a stress indicator for the monetary system.
Full explanation in the Atlas →Methodology
The monitor tracks three readings. The calendar carry is the annualized spread between the front and next COMEX contract, both captured in the same snapshot — a carry (and backwardation) signal free of any spot-timing lag. The annualized basis compares the front-month future to the LBMA PM fix — a once-daily benchmark, not a live leg — annualized by time to delivery. The live co-basis is Fekete's decarry measure: spot bid minus future ask, from simultaneous bid/ask on a live spot feed and the front contract, annualized. A positive co-basis is backwardation.
Because the calendar spread and co-basis are each measured from quotes captured together, they isolate the paper-physical tension Antal Fekete identified as the vital sign of the monetary system — without letting the drift of a stale spot fix masquerade as signal. A persistent positive co-basis means holders refuse to part with physical metal at any futures premium.
Data Sources
- Futures
- COMEX gold futures — front and next delivery contracts
- Spot benchmark
- LBMA gold PM fix (once-daily reference)
- Live spot (co-basis)
- Live spot bid/ask, sampled together with the futures snapshot
- Update cadence
- Futures & calendar carry every 15 min during U.S. market hours; live co-basis a few times each weekday
- Historical retention
- Readings retained continuously since instrument launch
How to Interpret
A positive basis (contango) is the normal monetary condition — holders are compensated for lending gold against futures. A narrowing basis as delivery approaches is the early stress signal. A negative basis (backwardation) signals paper-physical decoupling: the futures market can no longer source physical metal at the prevailing forward premium.
Permanent backwardation — the regime Fekete predicted in his later essays — is the terminal condition in which the futures curve never re-inverts. The monitor is designed to log the episodes that pass through transient backwardation toward that endpoint.
How to Cite
Researchers, journalists, and analysts citing this instrument are welcome to use the formats below. Replace [date of retrieval] with the date you retrieved the reading.
Prose
New Austrian Economics, Gold Basis Monitor, retrieved [date of retrieval], https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/gold-basis
Academic (APA)
New Austrian Economics. (2026). Gold Basis Monitor [Data analysis tool]. Retrieved [date of retrieval] from https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/gold-basis
One-liner
per the Gold Basis Monitor at newaustrianeconomics.com