A drawn bow at left, arrows in flight, a concentric target at right — predictions loosed, awaiting resolution

Framework Scorecard

Timestamped predictions from the New Austrian Economics framework — recorded in advance, scored as evidence resolves.

Total logged

Open

Resolved

Track record

1/1

Every specific, dated prediction the catalog has published — logged at the time of publication, with explicit resolution criteria. The framework will be judged by what it logged in advance, not by what it explains in hindsight. How scoring works →

Open

Resolution window has not arrived. Sorted by earliest resolution date.

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: October 2026

Headline CPI rises to 4.5–5.5% year-over-year at some point through Q3 2026 as Hormuz energy-channel transmission completes.

Resolution criteria: BLS Headline CPI YoY readings for July, August, or September 2026 reaching the 4.5–5.5% band.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

Latest update · June 10, 2026

En route. May 2026 print at 4.2% (vs. 3.8% April, 3.2% March) — tracking the slow end of the band; at current monthly acceleration the reading crosses 4.5% by July and ~5.0% by late summer.

Interim data point only; window does not close until Q3 prints are released in October. Status remains open.

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: October 2026

Headline food CPI accelerates from 2.6% YoY toward a 4–5% range through Q3 2026 as the fertilizer-and-shipping channels begin propagating to retail.

Resolution criteria: BLS Food CPI YoY reading in July, August, or September 2026 reaching the 4–5% range.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

Latest update · June 10, 2026

En route. May 2026 food CPI at 3.1%, up from 2.3% in April — an 80bp single-month acceleration consistent with early-to-mid fertilizer-to-retail transmission.

Not yet in the 4–5% band; trajectory and pace are consistent with the framework's channel timing. Status remains open until Q3 data closes.

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: December 2026

U.S. natural gas prices reach 50–80% above pre-conflict levels by late 2026 as LNG-channel transmission completes.

Resolution criteria: U.S. natural gas spot prices (Henry Hub or comparable benchmark) in Q4 2026 measured against the February 2026 baseline.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

Latest update · June 10, 2026

En route. Industry data through May 2026 shows U.S. natural gas spot prices roughly 35–45% above pre-conflict levels — moving up the predicted trajectory but not yet at the late-2026 target band.

Interim reading; resolution window remains Q4 2026.

OpenHousingRecorded May 16, 2026Resolution window: January 2027

Lakeland’s metro foreclosure rate remains at or above the national-leading position through 2026.

Resolution criteria: ATTOM Data Solutions monthly foreclosure rate rankings, December 2026 reading.

Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →

OpenHigher EducationRecorded May 29, 2026Resolution window: January 2027

Nonprofit four-year college closure announcements reach 12–18 institutions for calendar year 2026.

Resolution criteria: Count of announced permanent closures of nonprofit four-year U.S. colleges in 2026, per Higher Ed Dive / Inside Higher Ed closure trackers.

Source: The Credential That Could Not Compound: College Costs, Closures, and What AI Reveals About the Degree →

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: June 2027

Peak American household price impact from the Strait of Hormuz disruption arrives in Q1–Q2 2027, with elevated price levels persisting through 2028.

Resolution criteria: Headline CPI YoY peak between January and June 2027 attributable to oil, freight, fertilizer, and downstream consumer-price propagation channels.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: July 2027

U.S. grain prices rise 25–40% by mid-2027 due to fertilizer-channel transmission of the Hormuz disruption alone, with broader food-price impacts following.

Resolution criteria: USDA grain price indexes (corn, wheat) measured against February 2026 baseline.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: July 2027

Headline food CPI rises to approximately 6–9% year-over-year by mid-2027.

Resolution criteria: BLS Food CPI YoY reading in May or June 2027.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

OpenHousingRecorded May 16, 2026Resolution window: July 2027

The Cape Coral / Punta Gorda / North Port / Naples cluster reaches or exceeds Lakeland’s foreclosure rate by mid-2027.

Resolution criteria: ATTOM Data Solutions metro foreclosure rate rankings for Q2 2027.

Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →

OpenHousingRecorded May 19, 2026Resolution window: July 2027

At least three currently-yellow Sun Belt metros transition to red category on the framework’s tax-plus-insurance wedge classification by mid-2027.

Resolution criteria: Metro Saleability Map classifications as of June 2027 vs. May 2026 baseline.

Source: The Tax-Plus-Insurance Wedge: How Non-Mortgage Carrying Costs Became the Marginal Variable in American Housing →

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: September 2027

The cumulative consumer price impact of the Hormuz disruption adds approximately 2.4 percentage points to headline CPI over the propagation window.

Resolution criteria: Cumulative excess CPI between February 2026 and the Q1–Q2 2027 peak, measured against the pre-conflict trend extrapolation.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

OpenCommercial Real EstateRecorded June 7, 2026Resolution window: December 2027

Major U.S. cities with high commercial property tax dependence face budget deficits and potential credit rating downgrades through 2026–2027 as office reassessments work through municipal tax rolls.

Resolution criteria: Moody's / S&P credit rating actions on major U.S. cities (top-25 by population) with commercial property tax share above 25% of general-fund revenue through year-end 2027.

Source: Extend, Pretend, Foreclose: The Commercial Real Estate Collapse the Framework Predicted Is Operationally Here →

OpenHigher EducationRecorded May 29, 2026Resolution window: January 2028

Nonprofit four-year college closure announcements exceed 20 institutions for calendar year 2027.

Resolution criteria: Count of announced permanent closures of nonprofit four-year U.S. colleges in 2027, per Higher Ed Dive / Inside Higher Ed closure trackers.

Source: The Credential That Could Not Compound: College Costs, Closures, and What AI Reveals About the Degree →

OpenLabor / AIRecorded June 8, 2026Resolution window: January 2028

U.S. headline unemployment drifts toward 5–6% by year-end 2027, with the composition shifting more dramatically than the headline number — AI-substitutable white-collar categories deteriorating while physical-work categories tighten.

Resolution criteria: BLS headline U-3 unemployment rate reading in December 2027 within the 5.0–6.0% band, and the differential between white-collar (BLS series for management/professional/office) and skilled-trades unemployment widening relative to the 2024 baseline.

Source: The Saleability of Human Hours: Labor, AI, and the Mengerian Inversion Already Underway →

OpenCryptocurrencyRecorded May 31, 2026Resolution window: May 2028

The cryptocurrency market shows a visible composition shift toward genuinely privacy-preserving instruments over the next 12–24 months as the post-Bessent-disclosure narrative recalibration plays out.

Resolution criteria: Market-capitalization share of privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies (Monero, Zcash shielded, and comparable instruments) and aggregate use of privacy-enhancing protocols on major chains, measured against the May 2026 baseline.

Source: "We Just Outright Grabbed the Wallets": What the Iran Crypto Seizures Reveal About Self-Custody, Stablecoins, and the Privacy Narrative →

OpenHousingRecorded May 16, 2026Resolution window: June 2028

Polk County home prices decline an additional 8–12% over the 24 months following publication (by mid-2028).

Resolution criteria: Zillow Home Value Index for Polk County, FL, measured against May 2026 baseline.

Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →

OpenMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: December 2028

The Hormuz disruption persists at meaningful intensity through 2H 2026, with partial improvement through 2027, and full normalization not before 2028.

Resolution criteria: War risk insurance availability for Gulf transits, shipping route share through Hormuz vs. Cape rerouting, and Gulf-origin LNG / oil contract volumes returning to pre-conflict baselines.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

OpenCommercial Real EstateRecorded June 7, 2026Resolution window: December 2028

Cumulative CRE office-sector loss recognition through 2026–2028 approaches the Hinzen-implied "true" credit stress reading of 40–45% rather than the lower published delinquency figures.

Resolution criteria: Cumulative realized loss severity on office CMBS and bank-held office CRE loans through year-end 2028, measured against pre-2020 valuations.

Source: Extend, Pretend, Foreclose: The Commercial Real Estate Collapse the Framework Predicted Is Operationally Here →

OpenCommercial Real EstateRecorded June 7, 2026Resolution window: December 2028

Regional banks with CRE-to-equity ratios above 300% face meaningful capital pressure — capital raises, dividend cuts, forced mergers, or FDIC resolution — through the 2026–2028 CRE recognition window.

Resolution criteria: Count and aggregate asset size of regional banks (under $250B assets) with pre-2026 CRE/equity > 300% that subsequently raise dilutive capital, cut dividends, merge under pressure, or enter FDIC resolution through 2028.

Source: Extend, Pretend, Foreclose: The Commercial Real Estate Collapse the Framework Predicted Is Operationally Here →

OpenLabor / AIRecorded June 8, 2026Resolution window: December 2028

AI substitution continues to accelerate in entry-level white-collar categories through 2027–2028 before reaching diminishing returns as the affected employer base completes its deployment cycle.

Resolution criteria: Challenger, Gray & Christmas layoff reports attributing share to AI substitution, plus BLS entry-level white-collar (legal, accounting, customer service, paralegal, junior analyst) employment levels through year-end 2028.

Source: The Saleability of Human Hours: Labor, AI, and the Mengerian Inversion Already Underway →

OpenPolicyRecorded May 26, 2026Resolution window: June 2030

State-level legislative responses targeting the utility-delegation mechanism of eminent domain emerge over the next 2–4 years, but current property owners facing condemnation do not benefit from those reforms in time.

Resolution criteria: Enacted state legislation by mid-2030 restricting delegated condemnation authority to private utilities, paired with the disposition of pending condemnation cases initiated before enactment.

Source: Eminent Domain, AI Data Centers, and the Erosion of Property Rights →

OpenHigher EducationRecorded May 29, 2026Resolution window: December 2030

Cumulative post-pandemic (March 2020 onward) nonprofit four-year college closures surpass 100 institutions by year-end 2030.

Resolution criteria: Cumulative count of announced permanent closures of nonprofit four-year U.S. colleges from March 2020 through December 2030.

Source: The Credential That Could Not Compound: College Costs, Closures, and What AI Reveals About the Degree →

OpenPrecious MetalsRecorded May 30, 2026Resolution window: December 2030

Paper-physical decoupling episodes recur in precious metals at intervals consistent with the substrate-fragility configuration documented in the January 30, 2026 crash.

Resolution criteria: At least one additional precious-metals event by 2030 showing a >15% single-session paper price move coincident with documented physical-market premium divergence and concentrated short coverage.

Source: Paper, Physical, and the Silver Crash of January 30: What the Framework Reads in the Data →

OpenLabor / AIRecorded June 8, 2026Resolution window: December 2030

Mid-level white-collar work faces further saleability erosion through 2027–2030 as AI capabilities extend up the cognitive complexity ladder.

Resolution criteria: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics for mid-level professional and managerial categories (5–15 years experience) showing real wage compression and/or net employment decline relative to 2024 baseline through 2030.

Source: The Saleability of Human Hours: Labor, AI, and the Mengerian Inversion Already Underway →

OpenPrecious MetalsRecorded May 30, 2026Resolution window: December 2035

Concentration in COMEX silver short positions remains at or near current levels through the next decade regardless of CFTC enforcement actions following the January 30, 2026 crash.

Resolution criteria: CFTC weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports through 2035; the top-4 short concentration in COMEX silver futures remains within historical bands rather than materially declining.

Source: Paper, Physical, and the Silver Crash of January 30: What the Framework Reads in the Data →

OpenCryptocurrencyRecorded May 31, 2026Resolution window: December 2035

Stablecoin issuer compliance with sanctions enforcement extends rather than retreats over the next decade, with additional categories of addresses and counterparties brought under issuer-level freeze and seizure capabilities.

Resolution criteria: Cumulative count and breadth of stablecoin-issuer freeze actions and seizures (Tether, Circle, and other major issuers) through 2035 vs. the May 2026 baseline.

Source: "We Just Outright Grabbed the Wallets": What the Iran Crypto Seizures Reveal About Self-Custody, Stablecoins, and the Privacy Narrative →

OpenFunding MarketsRecorded May 1, 2026Resolution window: Open-ended

The next major substitute-layer stress event will be funding-market-driven, with Repo Haircut Dispersion (RHD) elevating in advance of the other Mengerian Stress Index components.

Resolution criteria: At the next event where the MSI composite exceeds +2 standard deviations, RHD shows elevation preceding PPP, CCB, and ENV by at least one publication cycle.

Source: The Mengerian Stress Index: From Spec to Live Dashboard →

Resolved — Correct

Predicted outcome occurred within the specified criteria.

Resolved — CorrectMacro / CPIRecorded June 1, 2026Resolution window: July 2026

U.S. national-average gasoline pump prices rise by approximately $1.20–$1.80 per gallon from pre-conflict levels by mid-2026.

Resolution criteria: BLS CPI gasoline component and national retail price surveys for May–July 2026 measured against the pre-conflict (February 2026) baseline of approximately $3.40/gal.

Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →

Resolution · June 10, 2026

May 2026 CPI shows gasoline +40.5% YoY, placing the national-average pump price at approximately $4.78/gal — an increase of roughly $1.38/gal, squarely within the predicted $1.20–$1.80 range.

Tracking near the midpoint of the predicted band three months after the February 28, 2026 disruption — consistent with the empirical 3–5 week crude-to-refined pass-through window plus subsequent retail propagation. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases continue to partially mute the channel.

How scoring works

Each prediction has three structural elements: what the framework expects to occur, by when, and how the verdict will be rendered. Verdict criteria are public and use third-party data sources (BLS, USDA, ATTOM, Zillow, NY Fed) wherever possible. Predictions resolve in one of four states:

Open — resolution window has not arrived.
Partial — evidence is mixed or directionally correct but outside the predicted magnitude / timing band.
Resolved — Correct — the predicted outcome occurred within the specified criteria.
Resolved — Incorrect — the predicted outcome did not occur, or occurred but outside the specified criteria.

Resolutions are appended to this page as they happen. Original prediction text is never edited.

Why this page exists

Most macro commentary is structured to be unfalsifiable. Calls are vague, undated, or quietly revised when evidence contradicts them. The framework rejects that posture. The point is not to claim accuracy — it is to commit in advance. A prediction timestamped before its resolution is a different kind of artifact than a retrospective explanation written after the fact.