Timestamped predictions from the New Austrian Economics framework — recorded in advance, scored as evidence resolves.
Total logged
11
Open
11
Resolved
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Track record
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Every specific, dated prediction the catalog has published — logged at the time of publication, with explicit resolution criteria. The framework will be judged by what it logged in advance, not by what it explains in hindsight. How scoring works →
Resolution window has not arrived. Sorted by earliest resolution date.
Lakeland’s metro foreclosure rate remains at or above the national-leading position through 2026.
Resolution criteria: ATTOM Data Solutions monthly foreclosure rate rankings, December 2026 reading.
Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →
Peak American household price impact from the Strait of Hormuz disruption arrives in Q1–Q2 2027, with elevated price levels persisting through 2028.
Resolution criteria: Headline CPI YoY peak between January and June 2027 attributable to oil, freight, fertilizer, and downstream consumer-price propagation channels.
Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →
U.S. grain prices rise 25–40% by mid-2027 due to fertilizer-channel transmission of the Hormuz disruption alone, with broader food-price impacts following.
Resolution criteria: USDA grain price indexes (corn, wheat) measured against February 2026 baseline.
Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →
Headline food CPI rises to approximately 6–9% year-over-year by mid-2027.
Resolution criteria: BLS Food CPI YoY reading in May or June 2027.
Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →
The Cape Coral / Punta Gorda / North Port / Naples cluster reaches or exceeds Lakeland’s foreclosure rate by mid-2027.
Resolution criteria: ATTOM Data Solutions metro foreclosure rate rankings for Q2 2027.
Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →
At least three currently-yellow Sun Belt metros transition to red category on the framework’s tax-plus-insurance wedge classification by mid-2027.
Resolution criteria: Metro Saleability Map classifications as of June 2027 vs. May 2026 baseline.
The cumulative consumer price impact of the Hormuz disruption adds approximately 2.4 percentage points to headline CPI over the propagation window.
Resolution criteria: Cumulative excess CPI between February 2026 and the Q1–Q2 2027 peak, measured against the pre-conflict trend extrapolation.
Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →
Polk County home prices decline an additional 8–12% over the 24 months following publication (by mid-2028).
Resolution criteria: Zillow Home Value Index for Polk County, FL, measured against May 2026 baseline.
Source: Lakeland, Florida: How One Sun Belt Metro Became the Saleability Collapse Case Study →
The Hormuz disruption persists at meaningful intensity through 2H 2026, with partial improvement through 2027, and full normalization not before 2028.
Resolution criteria: War risk insurance availability for Gulf transits, shipping route share through Hormuz vs. Cape rerouting, and Gulf-origin LNG / oil contract volumes returning to pre-conflict baselines.
Source: The Lag: What Hormuz Will Cost the American Household, and When →
State-level legislative responses targeting the utility-delegation mechanism of eminent domain emerge over the next 2–4 years, but current property owners facing condemnation do not benefit from those reforms in time.
Resolution criteria: Enacted state legislation by mid-2030 restricting delegated condemnation authority to private utilities, paired with the disposition of pending condemnation cases initiated before enactment.
Source: Eminent Domain, AI Data Centers, and the Erosion of Property Rights →
The next major substitute-layer stress event will be funding-market-driven, with Repo Haircut Dispersion (RHD) elevating in advance of the other Mengerian Stress Index components.
Resolution criteria: At the next event where the MSI composite exceeds +2 standard deviations, RHD shows elevation preceding PPP, CCB, and ENV by at least one publication cycle.
Source: The Mengerian Stress Index: From Spec to Live Dashboard →
Each prediction has three structural elements: what the framework expects to occur, by when, and how the verdict will be rendered. Verdict criteria are public and use third-party data sources (BLS, USDA, ATTOM, Zillow, NY Fed) wherever possible. Predictions resolve in one of four states:
Resolutions are appended to this page as they happen. Original prediction text is never edited.
Most macro commentary is structured to be unfalsifiable. Calls are vague, undated, or quietly revised when evidence contradicts them. The framework rejects that posture. The point is not to claim accuracy — it is to commit in advance. A prediction timestamped before its resolution is a different kind of artifact than a retrospective explanation written after the fact.