The Toolkit
Interactive tools that operationalize New Austrian theory.
New
The Dashboard
One-glance view of every live instrument. Headline values, tone-coded, refreshed daily.
Phase 1 — Foundations
Direct-observation indicators grounded in Menger and Fekete: basis, ratios, curve shape, and time preference.
Gold Basis Monitor
Real-time basis and co-basis between LBMA spot and COMEX front-month gold futures. Updated every 15 minutes during U.S. market hours.
LiveSilver Basis Monitor
Real-time basis and co-basis between the LBMA silver fix and COMEX front-month silver futures (/SI). Silver backwardation is rarer than gold and historically a stronger paper-physical signal.
LiveSilver/Gold Ratio Monitor
Front-month gold over front-month silver, with Austrian interpretation and Fekete bimetallic arbitrage context.
LiveTreasury Yield Curve Tracker
2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury futures with Austrian business cycle phase interpretation.
LiveTime Preference Calculator
Real purchasing power preservation analysis — fiat versus hard asset scenarios.
LiveBusiness Cycle Phase Indicator
Composite Austrian dashboard: yield curve, monetary aggregates, credit spreads, and gold/silver ratio — with framework interpretation guide.
LiveLBMA Precious Metals Fixes
Daily LBMA gold AM/PM and silver fixes — the foundational spot reference used by the Gold Basis Monitor.
Phase 2 — The Mengerian Stress Index
The framework's diagnostic apparatus for substitute-layer integrity.
Mengerian Stress Index
Composite Z-weighted index of PPP, RHD, CCB, and ENV — the framework's primary aggregate stress diagnostic. 4-component variant; OTROFF excluded (no free per-CUSIP yield feed).
BuildingPaper-Physical Premium
Spread between paper-market and physical-market pricing in precious metals. Partial data via Schwab futures and LBMA fixes; full dealer-premium ingestor still pending.
Spec'dOn/Off-the-Run Treasury Spread
A saleability differential within the Treasury market.
LiveRepo Haircut Dispersion
Median haircuts by collateral group + cross-sectional dispersion — the framework's primary funding-market stress signal.
LiveFX Cross-Currency Basis
Deviation from covered interest parity across EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF — derived from CME currency futures, foreign reference rates (ESTR/SONIA/TONA/SARON), and SOFR.
Spec'dETF NAV Deviation
Daily discount of market price to NAV across stress-relevant ETFs. Awaiting a NAV source — Twelvedata's free tier excludes it; alternatives under evaluation.
Spec'dMarketability Half-Life
A regime-classification tool for substitute-layer stress events.
LiveDecay Function Visualizer
Interactive view of the marketability decay relationship.
Phase 3 — Housing Diagnostics
The housing trilogy operationalized — metro-level saleability scoring and household carrying-cost analysis.
Tax + Insurance Wedge Calculator
Household carrying-cost calculator covering mortgage, property tax, insurance, and HOA across U.S. metros.
LiveMetro Saleability Map
Housing trajectory across major U.S. metros + the framework Florida cluster: ZHVI with YoY, 5-yr, and pre-pandemic baseline comparisons.
LiveLong-Horizon Property-Tax Projector
Cumulative 10–40 year household property tax across Prop-13 / Save Our Homes / Texas-cap / un-capped regimes — the household-level consequence of choosing a state.
ConceptualTransmission-Corridor Overlay
A saleability deduction tied to transmission-infrastructure proximity.
Phase 4 — Watching the Cracks (Banking)
A rolling banking-stress watchlist drawing on public regulatory data.
FDIC Failures Tracker
Annual U.S. bank failure counts since 2000, with year-by-year breakdown. The framework's regime-shift dashboard.
LiveBank Enforcement Watchlist
Federal Reserve enforcement actions against bank holding companies and individuals — leading indicator for resolution events.
Spec'dCMBS vs Bank-Held CRE Gap
A delinquency-gap diagnostic across commercial real-estate exposures.
Spec'dCRE Maturity Wall
Disposition tracking for maturing commercial real-estate debt.
LiveTreasury Auction Stress
Latest auction by tenor with PD takedown, indirect/direct shares, bid-to-cover, and high yield.
Phase 5 — Precious Metals Fragility
Structural diagnostics for the precious-metals complex.
Futures Positioning Concentration
Weekly CFTC disaggregated positioning for COMEX silver and gold: swap-dealer net + top-4 concentration.
LiveCOMEX Delivery Activity
Daily per-firm Issues and Stops in COMEX/NYMEX metals — who is taking delivery and who is issuing.
ConceptualSilver Structural-Deficit Gauge
Multi-year silver supply-demand balance and above-ground inventory trajectory.
ConceptualEast/West Metals Premium
Cross-venue physical metals premium as a decoupling signal.
Phase 6 — Framework Rubrics
Qualitative scoring instruments that recur across the writing.