Business Cycle Phase Indicator
Composite Austrian signal built from yield curve shape, monetary base growth, credit spreads, and commodity ratios.
Current Phase
Composite indicator will be calculated from live data sources: Schwab (yield curve, commodities), FRED (M2, credit growth).
Awaiting data integration
Phase Reference
Expansion
Credit creation active, yield curve steepening, commodity prices rising.
Late Cycle
Yield curve flattening, credit spreads narrowing, speculative excess visible.
Crack-Up Boom Warning
Flight from currency into tangible assets. Gold backwardation appearing.
Contraction
Yield curve inverted, credit spreads widening, malinvestments being liquidated.
Liquidation
Capital being reallocated. Painful but necessary correction underway.