Business Cycle Phase Indicator
Composite Austrian signal built from yield curve shape, monetary aggregates, credit spreads, and commodity ratios.
Composite Business-Cycle Inputs
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Phase Reference
Expansion
Credit creation active, yield curve steepening, commodity prices rising.
Late Cycle
Yield curve flattening, credit spreads narrowing, speculative excess visible.
Crack-Up Boom Warning
Flight from currency into tangible assets. Gold backwardation appearing.
Contraction
Yield curve inverted, credit spreads widening, malinvestments being liquidated.
Liquidation
Capital being reallocated. Painful but necessary correction underway.