Long-Horizon Property-Tax Projector
Cumulative household property-tax burden across U.S. assessment-cap regimes over a 10–40 year holding period. The choice of state at purchase locks a household into a multi-decade trajectory of either Prop-13-style protection or full market exposure.
Inputs
California Prop 13
Assessed value capped at +2%/yr from purchase basis; resets on sale.
30-yr cumulative tax
$310,346
Final assessed value: $905,681
Florida Save Our Homes
Homestead assessed-value cap of +3% or CPI (whichever is lower).
30-yr cumulative tax
$367,520
Final assessed value: $1,213,631
Texas homestead cap
+10%/yr homestead cap (20%/yr for non-homestead through 2026).
30-yr cumulative tax
$437,463
Final assessed value: $1,621,699
No cap (IL, OH, PA, …)
Full market reassessment each cycle.
30-yr cumulative tax
$437,463
Final assessed value: $1,621,699
The gap between the lowest and highest cumulative tax above = $127,117 over 30 years on a $500,000 home. This is the household-level consequence of the regime choice — locked in at purchase, irreversible without relocating.