Silver Basis Monitor
Calendar-spread carry, annualized basis, and live co-basis for silver — the paper-physical tension between COMEX futures and spot. Futures refresh every 15 minutes during U.S. market hours.
Current Silver Basis
Loading current silver basis…
What is the Silver Basis?
The silver basis is the difference between the futures price and the spot price of silver. A positive basis (contango) is the normal condition. A negative basis (backwardation) signals that holders prefer physical metal over paper promises. Silver backwardation is rarer than gold backwardation and historically a stronger paper-physical decoupling signal — see Forum #24 on the January 30, 2026 silver crash.
Methodology
The monitor tracks three readings. The calendar carry is the annualized spread between the front and next COMEX silver contract, both captured in the same snapshot — a carry (and backwardation) signal free of any spot-timing lag. The annualized basis compares the front-month future to the LBMA silver fix — a once-daily benchmark, not a live leg — annualized by time to delivery. The live co-basisis Fekete's decarry measure: spot bid minus future ask, from simultaneous bid/ask on a live spot feed and the front contract, annualized. A positive co-basis is backwardation.
Silver backwardation is historically rarer than gold backwardation. When it occurs, it has been a stronger paper-physical decoupling signal because silver's smaller market depth and lower inventory-to-flow ratio make a physical squeeze harder to paper over.
Data Sources
- Futures
- COMEX silver futures (/SI) — front and next delivery contracts
- Spot benchmark
- LBMA silver fix (once-daily reference)
- Live spot (co-basis)
- Live spot bid/ask, sampled together with the futures snapshot
- Update cadence
- Futures & calendar carry every 15 min during U.S. market hours; live co-basis a few times each weekday
- Historical retention
- Readings retained continuously since instrument launch
How to Interpret
Contango (positive basis) is the normal silver market condition. Persistent backwardation in silver is rare in the modern era and has coincided with episodes of acute physical scarcity — the January 30, 2026 silver crash analyzed in Forum #24 is a recent example.
Because silver's industrial demand floor is harder to dislodge than gold's monetary demand floor, silver backwardation tends to resolve through abrupt price gaps rather than gradual basis recovery. The monitor is designed to capture both the basis condition and the timing of those resolutions.
How to Cite
Researchers, journalists, and analysts citing this instrument are welcome to use the formats below. Replace [date of retrieval] with the date you retrieved the reading.
Prose
New Austrian Economics, Silver Basis Monitor, retrieved [date of retrieval], https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/silver-basis
Academic (APA)
New Austrian Economics. (2026). Silver Basis Monitor [Data analysis tool]. Retrieved [date of retrieval] from https://newaustrianeconomics.com/toolkit/silver-basis
One-liner
per the Silver Basis Monitor at newaustrianeconomics.com