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backwardation

2 essays in the Forum tagged "backwardation".

April 19, 2026New Austrian Economics

Why Gold Didn't Spike: A Fekete Diagnosis of the Iran War

During the 2026 Iran war, gold fell rather than rose and central banks turned net sellers in March. Standard gold-bug frameworks cannot explain this. Antal Fekete's backwardation framework predicted exactly this pattern twenty years ago.

gold FeketeIran warbackwardationmonetary theorycentral banks

November 8, 2009

The Vanishing Gold Basis: Field Notes from Canberra, 2009

Four days with Antal Fekete and the Gold Standard Institute in Canberra, fourteen months after Lehman. The gold basis as monetary thermometer, the mechanics of permanent backwardation, and why falling interest rates destroy capital in ways that no one in the financial press was discussing.

Fekete gold basisbackwardationReal Bills gold standard conferenceCanberracapital destruction